Maryland Mortgage Loans

#ForBuyers #Infographics #FirstTimeHomeBuyers #MoveUpBuyers Facts About Closing Costs [INFOGRAPHIC]: * If you’re thinking about buying a home, be sure to plan for closing costs. * Closing costs are typically 2% to 5% of the total purchase price of a home, and they can include things like government recording costs, appraisal fees, and more. http://dlvr.it/Slmp9C http://dlvr.it/SlmpXX

* If you’re thinking about buying a home, be sure to plan for closing costs. * Closing costs are typically 2% to 5% of the total purchase price of a home, and they can include things like government recording costs, appraisal fees, and more. http://dlvr.it/SlmpGX

You may have seen headlines saying the housing market is headed for a crash. It’s important to know why that’s not likely to happen. DM me to talk about why today’s housing market is different than it was in 2008. #realestate #homeownership www.DanFreshley.com http://dlvr.it/SlgSgC

Applications for both home purchases and refinancing rose for the fourth time during the week ended March 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.0 percent unadjusted compared to the week ended March 17.   The Refinance Index was 5 percent higher than the previous week and the refinance share of activity increased to 29.1 percent of total applications from 28.6 percent. The Index was 61 percent lower than the same week in 2022. [refiappschart] Purchase applications were 2.0 percent higher than the prior week on both an adjusted and an unadjusted basis  but the unadjusted Purchase Index was 35 percent lower than the same week a year earlier.   [purchaseappschart] “Application activity increased as mortgage rates declined for the third straight week. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.45 percent, the lowest level in over a month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice Pre

The week began with a noticeable uptick in mortgage rates relative to last week's lows.  Today's momentum continued in the same direction, but with less urgency.  The average lender moved up by 0.06% for a flawless conforming 30yr fixed scenario. Mortgage rates are driven by the constantly-changing prices of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds that rely on mortgages as collateral.  The bond market had been doing very well in the midst of the recent banking panic as investors sought safe havens to park cash.  MBS and Treasuries both fit that bill. But as panic subsides, investors have moved cash out of the bond market.  This puts downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on yields/rates.  This continues to be the primary source of input for rates, and one that is beginning to settle down.  There is more room for rates to adjust higher if banking concerns continue to subside.  http://dlvr.it/SldQ65

Some people might like the idea of perpetual appreciation in the housing market, but others know that the industry was badly in need of a cool-down after values surged at an unprecedented pace post-pandemic.  While the interest rate spike of 2022 wasn't entirely unprecedented, it was the fastest in decades and it left no doubt as to when home prices should embark on the much-needed correction. Two of the most official methods to track home price progress are the FHFA and Case Shiller Home Price Indices (HPIs), released concurrently once per month.  January's update just came out this morning and the results are mixed. In annual terms, price appreciation continues to decline rapidly: Based on price trends over the past 12 months, it would be almost impossible for the annual pace to avoid dipping into negative territory in the coming months.  That will be more a reflection of how high prices were a year ago than an absence of resilience in the present. In fact, the most recent tr

The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off.  This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening yields in more than 5 months).  With bank failures being the key reason for those low yields and a distinct absence of new bank failure in recent days, is it time to consider the end of this bull run in bonds?   If one were to base their answer entirely on yesterday's trading, then "maybe."  But let's consider the broader context.  We've had several 24-48hr periods where rates have spiked in similar fashion only to be dragged back down to the new, lower yield range.  Notably, the "new" range is actually also the same old range that we were watching in late January--the one that was ultimately broken by the strong jobs report in early February. Treasury yields continue to operate in this range, despite a bit more volatility around the highs and lows.  Additionally, the recent peaks in yields (and Fed Fund

John F. Kennedy has been gone nearly 60 years, and Jackie Kennedy (Onassis) nearly 30, but the couple still resonates with people. The first home that they owned as a married couple is for sale in Washington DC. If you’re ever in a guessing game about the most expensive places to live in the United States, stick with the safe bets: New York and anything California. Seems the press has latched on to declining home sales, but declining due to high prices, lack of inventory, or lack of buyer’s interest? Other stories indicated increasing home sales, but in certain price ranges, more builder inventory, or continued Millennial first-time home buyer interest? Take your pick. Meanwhile, lenders and originators have their continued regulatory speedbumps. Orrick reports that, “The Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS), on behalf of the NMLS Policy Committee, issued a request for public comments on proposed uniform state licensing standards for mortgage companies. The Proposal: Mortgage Bu

Throughout Women’s History Month, we reflect on the impact women have in our lives, and that includes impact on the housing market.  http://dlvr.it/SlbqV4

Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).  First Citizens bank will acquire nearly $130bn in deposits and loans.  In addition, there was no new drama in the European banking sector overnight.  Stocks and bonds are doing what they do when the bank contagion outlook improves. There are no major economic events on tap today.  In fact, the entire week is fairly calm when it comes to the econ calendar.  PCE inflation on Friday is the only potential exception, but that report has been nowhere near on the the level of CPI, which came out 2 weeks ago. http://dlvr.it/SlYPdn

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If you’re thinking about selling this spring, it’s time to get moving – the best week to list your house is fast approaching. Experts at... http://dlvr.it/SlYH9M

If you’re thinking about selling this spring, it’s time to get moving – the best week to list your house is fast approaching.  http://dlvr.it/SlXrTt

Things are always changing. No bagpipe player I saw growing up looked, or played, like this. The MBA’s forecast for 2023 volumes changed, and here’s the latest by the MBA on 2023’s originations: $1.8 trillion. Technology is always changing. No, this Commentary is not produced by ChatGPT, nor will it ever be, unlike lesser publications. But if you’re a teacher, like my daughter with her classroom full of 7th graders, or a professor, how do you know that the paper turned in by a student wasn’t produced by AI? (Speaking of which, thank you to everyone who wrote yesterday that egg-laying chickens were killed by the “flu” not “the flue”… I should have caught that.) Economic conditions are always changing as well, and yesterday’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee change of 25 basis points higher for its targeted overnight Fed Funds rate (what banks charge one another for overnight deposits) certainly sent a statement: “Sure some banks had some issues and mismanagement that we are well aw

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you want to know the decision will be a good one.  http://dlvr.it/SlLgh3

Once you’ve made the decision to sell your house and have hired a real estate agent to help, they’ll ask how much access to your home you want to give potential buyers. http://dlvr.it/SlDd3y

Bank Lifelines Lead Bond Market Reversal Financial markets continue feeling out prospects for global banking contagion.  Yesterday was a more fearful day, so bonds rallied.  Today was a more hopeful day, so bonds sold off.  That simple. Econ Data / Events Housing Starts 1.45m vs 1.31m f'cast, 1.32m prev Building Permits 1.524m vs 1.340m f'cast, 1.339m prev Philly Fed Index -23.2 vs -15.6 f'cast, -24.3 prev Jobless Claims 192k vs 205k f'cast, 212k prev Market Movement Recap 08:52 AM Mostly flat overnight with modest gains early and no reaction to data.  MBS up a few ticks.  10yr down 3.7bps at 3.425 10:25 AM Some initial weakness after ECB press conference, but bouncing back now.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 7.5bps at 3.388%. 10:57 AM Losing ground quickly on First Republic bailout headlines.  MBS down more than a quarter point from highs.  10yr quickly up 8-9bps at 3.458. 03:34 PM Selling spree leveled off shortly into the PM ho

Mortgage rates are ideally determined only once per day, several hours into the business day.  This gives mortgage lenders time to observe a baseline for trading levels in the bonds determine what they can charge.  But those bonds trade all day and if things deteriorate enough, lenders can change rates in the middle of the day.  Today was one of those days. The key considerations for bonds/rates at the moment are the fears and risks surrounding the global banking system.  High profile bank failures prompt investors to ask "who's next?"  A downward sentiment spiral ensues and, left unchecked, can wreak havoc on financial markets.  Regulators and other bankers have learned lessons from past examples of these sorts of panic spirals.  They acted quickly.  The Swiss National Bank provided a lifeline for troubled Credit Suisse and several domestic banks pledged to backstop First Republic's deposits earlier today. It was the latter, specifically, that led a reversal in finan

It didn’t approach the levels of the “good old days” of 2020 and 2021, but construction activity did show signs of life last month. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that both housing permit activity and residential construction starts rose sharply in February after a fairly lackluster performance in January. As in January, however, credit was largely due to multifamily construction. Permits for residential housing units were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.524 million units in February compared to 1.339 million in January. This was an increase of 13.8 percent. The figure, however, remains 17.9 percent lower than the February 2022 rate of 1.857 million units. The rate of permitting for single-family houses rose 7.6 percent to 777,000 units while multifamily permits were 24.3 percent higher at 560,000 units. Single-family permits were down 35.5 percent year-over-year, but the multifamily rate gained 16.9 percent on an an

While yesterday's Credit Suisse concerns were serious, the last official major bank failure happened 5 days ago. That's a very long time considering the way financial markets are trading.  After all, a swift drop of more than half a percent in 10yr yields is a big deal.  Or is it? A shorter term chart gives a distinctly different impression versus a longer term chart.  Ask the latter and we're just consolidating in a wide range--still waiting to see if inflation and economic data justify additional Fed tightening.  The most definitive comments on that are likely to come from the Fed itself in just under a week. http://dlvr.it/Sl0KPj

Have to buy something for someone in your life who has everything? If they’re a basketball fan, how about food smoked with the same type of wood used by NCAA basketball courts? News can be thrown at our biz has no rhyme or reason. Yesterday was one of those days, including the FHFA’s temporary hold on DTI pricing, detailed below. If you’d like some thoughts on the housing market after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, here you go, care of MCT. Along those lines, this Friday, “The Rundown” features Keith Little, President of Centennial Bank (Arkansas) discussing the bank failures from a banker’s perspective. Were regulators, auditors, and examiners doing their jobs? Speaking of regulators, my cat Myrtle, who is not a big fan of the CFPB, no doubt took note of yesterday’s announcement that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has launched an inquiry into companies that track and collect information on people’s personal lives. Some would wonder, isn’t that every government agency? And h

Does Credit Suisse qualify as a "big bank" anymore?  The company could be argued to be circling the drain for many months, but nonetheless holds hundreds of billions in assets.  If it failed, it would be a big deal, and financial markets asked that question in a very serious voice today. All other things being equal, when financial markets are concerned about a global systemic banking crisis, it tends to put downward pressure on stock prices and bond yields.  Bond yield is another term for interest rates. The bonds that underlie the mortgage market don't react quite as swiftly as US Treasuries to these sorts of episodes, but the reaction was plenty big nonetheless.  The average lender moved back down to levels seen on Monday.  At the time, those were the lowest rates in more than a month.  Whether or not rates remain in this territory (or lower) depends on the emergence of additional banking drama as well as the path of inflation and the economy.  The only safe bet in the

The Ides of March… And college basketball time. Here in Kentucky (men #6 in the East, Louisville women’s team #5) I overheard someone on the phone. “Yesterday I saw a woman in Walmart with March Madness teeth. She was down to her final four.” March Madness is in full swing, whether it is hoops or bonds. Or bank stocks. Is this really a fundamental structural plunging of the United States’ financial system? Doubtful. Moody’s came out with a warning about downgrading certain banks in the United States. It is not 2008. How much of this is psychology? Tweeting causing a run on deposits? Banks everywhere are looking at their liabilities (deposits, since they owe their depositors money) and assets (the money lent out using their depositor’s money, or securities owned. “Lending long and borrowing short” works when banks can pay very little on their deposits (like checking accounts earning 0 percent) and take that money and earn 4 or 6 percent on securities. But when the deposit base becomes u

After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying "game on!"  Stock prices of said banks led a market-wide sell-off in equities overnight.  Bonds rallied on the flight-to-safety, and yields are now back near Monday's lows. With the Fed in the midst of the typical 11-day communications blackout ahead of the next meeting, speculation has been running fairly wild as to how recent events affect the rate outlook.  To be fair, most of the "running wild" is a product of the new itself.  The Fed's blackout period only adds a modest amount of uncertainty. If you ask financial markets, everyone is fairly certain the Fed still hikes 25bps next week.  After that, it's anyone's guess as Fed Funds Futures suggest rate cuts on the horizon.  The overnight news brings December's Fed rate outlook to even lower levels than those seen on Monday. Long story short, the overnight move resets the board

Mortgage application volume increased for a second straight week as investors fled to the safety of government-guaranteed securities in the wake of three bank failures, and fears of depositor runs on several large regional banks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a gauge of loan application volume, rose 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended March 10. The index was 7 percent higher before adjustment. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist said, “Treasury yields declined late last week, as market concerns over bank closures and the potential for broader ripple effects triggered a flight to safety in Treasury bonds. This decline pushed mortgage rates for all loan types lower, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.71 percent, Home-purchase applications increased for the second straight week but remained almost 40 percent below last year’s pace. While lower rates should buoy housing demand, the financi

Though there are more homes for sale now than there were at this time last year, there’s still an undersupply with fewer houses available than in more normal, pre-pandemic years. http://dlvr.it/SkwMRb

The housing market has been going through shifts lately. http://dlvr.it/SksKBq

One of the benefits of being a homeowner is that you build equity over time.  http://dlvr.it/SkpJFd

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was up 9 percent. The Refinance Index rose 9 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week in 2022.  The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 28.9 percent of total applications from 28.7 percent. [refiappschart] The Purchase Index was 7 percent higher than the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and up 9 percent before adjustment. Purchase volume has declined 42 percent on an annual basis. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates continued to increase last week. The 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.79 percent – the highest level since November 2022 and 270 basis points higher than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Even with higher rates, there was an uptick in application

A lot has changed over the past year, and you might be wondering what’s in store for the spring housing market.  http://dlvr.it/SkYPnt

During the pandemic, many of us reexamined the meaning of home for ourselves and our loved ones.  http://dlvr.it/SkVHrd

It's not a decisive victory, but rather, a nice way to end a week that had previously seen rates pushed over 7% for the first time in months. The bond market (which accounts for most of the day-to-day momentum in rates) started the day on a strong note (strong = lower rates implied).  The strength turned to weakness for an hour or so after the day's hotly anticipated economic data.  Thankfully, the data wasn't tremendously strong (strong data = higher rates) and bonds were able to get back on a stronger track throughout the afternoon.  Multiple lenders issued mid-day price improvements.  The net effect is a rate landscape that is still near the highest levels in months, but not as high as it was yesterday.   It's also worth keeping in mind that the market is nimble and willing to react in a big way to important data on the horizon.  We expect next week to be volatile for several reasons with the biggest move coming on Friday after the jobs report.  There's no way to

Bonds rallied nicely in the overnight session and extended the gains in the first few hours of domestic trading.  The ISM Services data came in just a bit higher than expected with the employment component quite a bit higher.  Bonds gave up some of their overnight gains, but have been pushing back nicely as the day progresses.  The rebound has been enough to get 10yr yields back under the 3.99% technical level (or 3.98% or 4.0% depending on your preference). Note the good show of support at the 4.08 technical level yesterday.   Here's how the progress looks in 5.5 MBS: http://dlvr.it/SkKPRS

I won’t sugar coat this. Here’s some rough news for lenders and LOs: With plenty of quant jocks to slice and dice numbers, Goldman Sachs tells us that 99 percent of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6 percent or the current market rate, and around 28 percent of those have rates below 3 percent. So, what are you going to do about it? A buddy and I were out to eat recently. I asked the server (in my day they were called waiters and waitresses), “Is this a bistro, a brasserie, or a gastropub?” The bearded, short-haired fellow replied, “None of those. We’re a brewpub.” Options! People have options in investing their cash, and a LO can help with financial planning. Hey, if higher rates are driving business income down, you may-as-well profit from them, even if you only have $100. If you don’t mind tying your money up for a month or more and can earn nearly 5 percent on your cash with a few keystrokes, why earn 0 percent on your bank account? Open up a TreasuryDirect account and you

Some Highlights * If you’re thinking of selling your house, be sure to explore all the options you have for your next home. * Both newly built homes and existing homes offer plenty of unique benefits. http://dlvr.it/SkJBnp

"Resilience" has been the theme of the past several trading days as 10yr yields have held the ceiling at 3.98%.  That ceiling is now facing its most legitimate threats after several economic reports suggest persistent price pressures.  This began in the overnight session with Germany's many inflation reports and continued domestically after the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data came in at 51.3 vs forecasts of 45.1.   To be clear, the ISM data was/is today's most relevant event for bonds.  Fed Funds Futures had been drifting toward higher rates between 9 and 10am but have definitely seen their sharpest movement after ISM.  http://dlvr.it/SkBl7k

I have news for you, and I hope that I’m not bursting anyone’s bubble here. If a meat packer could sell the delicious looking meat that you see in the background in ads for hamburger at $15/pound, do you really think they’d put it into $4/pound ground beef, or $2/pound hot dogs? Yes, numbers can tell a story, like it or not. How about this nifty map, great for loan officers and real estate agents and discovered in my email files, showing the population shift in the United States during the last ten years? Continuing with the numbers theme, today only 10 percent of U.S. mortgage borrowers have adjustable-rate mortgages, and that number was 40 percent in 2008. In terms of our biz, today’s higher mortgage rates only impact new buyers and borrowers. Existing fixed-rate home loan borrowers are insulated from increases in short-term interest rates. “Let the Fed do what it will!” Lastly, Rocket gave the world a lot of numbers yesterday in the form of its earnings, and can be used as a bellwet

The volume of mortgage application activity for both refinancing and purchasing fell again last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended February 24 and was 4 percent lower on an unadjusted basis.    The Refinance Index was down 6 percent compared to the previous week and was 74 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 31.8 percent of total applications from 32.5 percent during the prior period. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index also suffered a 6 percent loss. The unadjusted version was down 3 percent week-over-week and 44 percent below its pace in the same week of 2022.   [purchaseappschart] MBA spokesperson Joel Kan, vice president and chief economist, said, “The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.71 percent last week, the highest rate since November 2022, which

If you’re thinking of selling your house, it’s important to work with someone who understands how the market is changing and what it means for you. Here are five reasons working with a professional can ensure you’ll get the most out of your sale. http://dlvr.it/SkB2pc