MARKET FOCUS: STIMULUS, SERVICE SECTOR, AND BLOCKBUSTER HOME SALES




Stocks opened lower this morning after generally unchanged yesterday. Investors are pausing to get more specifics from the Biden administration. Equity markets will love the increased spending, but how much love is where markets are today.

Biden wants a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to shorten the economic decline. Most world leaders are taking a more conservative outlook. Hopes that activity can return to normal in the hardest-hit economies are becoming increasingly distant despite the progress being made on vaccinations. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson signaled that the country's current lockdown could last until the summer while officials there have suggested paying people who test positive for the virus to stay at home. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it would be late September before everyone who wants to get vaccinated can get a shot. Anger is rising across Europe as the supply of Pfizer vaccines slows. In the U.S., President Biden will sign executive actions today that will boost food assistance for impoverished Americans.

The damage being done to economic activity was laid clear in this morning's Purchasing Managers Index numbers from Europe, which clearly signaled a double-dip recession in the euro area. IHS Markit's gauge of private-sector activity fell to 47.5, with the service sector continuing to lag, while manufacturing in Germany remained strong. Output in the U.K. fell at the quickest pace since May, with Brexit delays adding to the pandemic-driven slowdown. The ECB's survey of professional forecasters expects 2021 growth of 4.4%, down from the previous forecast for growth of 5.7%.

At 9:30 am ET, the DJIA opened -178, NASDAQ -47, S&P -17. 10 yr 1.09% -2 bp. FNMA 2.0 30 yr coupon +6 bp, -8 bp from 9:30 yesterday. 2.5 FNMA coupon +12 bp, -4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am ET, Dec PMI expected at 55.5 as released 58.0; services PMI expected at 53.8 increased to 57.5. The strength is much stronger than in Europe.

At 10:00 am ET, Dec existing home sales were thought to be 6.550, as released +0.7%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Get Ready for Smaller, More Affordable Homes Have you been trying to buy a home, but higher mortgage rates and home prices are limiting your options? If so, here’s some good news, smaller, more affordable homes are on the way. In some ways, smaller homes are already here. When the pandemic hit, the meaning of home changed. People needed the space their home provided not only as a place to live, but as a place to work, go to school, exercise, and more. Those who had that space were more likely to keep it. And those that didn’t were in a position where they were trying to sell their smaller house to move up to a larger one. That meant the homes coming to the market during the pandemic were smaller than those on the market before the pandemic – and that trend continues today. Larger homes tend to come on the market during the summer months when households with children who are out of school are looking to move. That seasonality means, based on historical trends and the fact that fall is now approaching, we can expect smaller, more affordable homes to come to the market throughout the rest of the year. What Does This Mean for You? The seasonal trend of smaller homes coming to the market in the later months of the year, coupled with builders bringing smaller, more affordable newly built homes to the market right now, is good news – especially if you’re finding it difficult to afford a home. If a smaller, more affordable home sounds appealing to you, good news – they’re coming. To keep up with what’s available in our area, DM me. #realestate #homeownership #homebuying www.DanFreshley.com

Image
Get Ready for Smaller, More Affordable Homes Have you been trying to buy a home, but higher mortgage rates and home prices are limiting your options? If so, here’s some good news, smaller, more affordable homes are on the way. In some ways, smaller homes are already here. When the pandemic hit, the meaning of home changed. People needed the space their home provided not only as a place to live, but as a place to work, go to school, exercise, and more. Those who had that space were more likely to keep it. And those that didn’t were in a position where they were trying to sell their smaller house to move up to a larger one. That meant the homes coming to the market during the pandemic were smaller than those on the market before the pandemic – and that trend continues today. Larger homes tend to come on the market during the summer months when households with children who are out of school are looking to move. That seasonality means, based on historical trends and the fact that fall ...
Read more

Accounting, Digital, Broker Comp Tools; FHA, VA, USDA Developments; Why Rates are Stubborn

Image
Imagine my surprise at finding tag (like on the playground) is an organized sport. Imagine my surprise at finding two gas stations at the same intersection yesterday in Truckee, California with two different prices for unleaded! Rather than wait for the CFPB to tell me that I could save money by going to the cheapest station, as it did by paying for a study on how different lenders have different mortgage prices, I actually reasoned, all by myself, that I could, and did, buy the least expensive gasoline. Switching gears, but continuing on with the thinking vein, a lot of reasoning went into determining that a) the earth is round, and b) globes are not some newly invented conspiracy theory. Someone needs to let Georgia’s current GOP district chair Kandiss Taylor know globes are globes. What the heck am I missing by subscribing to the round earth concept? And how about this for sensationalist headlines from Auction.com: One-Third of Buyers Expect Home Prices to Decline. Really? “Despite ...
Read more