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Showing posts from January, 2023

Stronger Start on Tame Employment Cost Data

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The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past.  Then in early 2022, Fed Chair Powell began to point it out as one of the most important indicators of potential wage pressures.  He's gone on to mention it several more times throughout the past 13 months.  It has thus become a consistent and obvious market mover.  Today's release is the latest example with a modest beat (1.0 vs 1.1) producing an instant rally with the highest single minute of volume in more than 2 weeks.  In fact, the only other reports with more of a volume response in January have been NFP and CPI. The chart above doesn't exactly mean that ECI is the second or 3rd most important market mover after CPI. But it does mean that this is officially one of the most tradeable flashpoints because it's not extraordinarily nuanced data.  In other words, the headline is the meat, and it's easy to understand.  That lends itself to an o

HMDA Compliance, Expansion Plan, Pricing Engine, Subservicing Products; Program and Procedure Changes

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Does technology always trump personal skills? Sometimes. But not all the time. Good LOs use the technology that best suits them in combination with their personal attributes to help borrowers every day. “In space, no one can hear you scream. In cyberspace, no one can shut you up.” How ‘bout some IT-related stuff? Here’s a softball: did you know that “Bluetooth” was named after Harald Bluetooth? The Bluetooth wireless specification design was named after the king in 1997, based on an analogy that the technology would unite devices the way Harald Bluetooth united the tribes of Denmark into a single kingdom. Another good use of technology is exhibited by Tim Lucas who writes, “There are more than 5 million Native Americans in the U.S. but only about 140 approved lenders. I created a Section 184 calculator that shows the required down payment, MI costs, and more. There's also a flowchart and a ton of info about the program.” Thank you, Tim! Here’s some more good news: Ransomware victim

Lower Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back to the Market

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As mortgage rates rose last year, activity in the housing market slowed down. And as a result, homes started seeing fewer offers and stayed on the market longer. That meant some homeowners decided to press pause on selling. http://dlvr.it/ShjZw4

Where Will You Go If You Sell? You Have Options.

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There are plenty of good reasons you might be ready to move. No matter your motivations, before you list your current house, you need to consider where you’ll go next. http://dlvr.it/ShfgPf

Why It Makes Sense To Move Before Spring

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Spring is usually the busiest season in the housing market. Many buyers wait until then to make their move, believing it’s the best time to find a home. However, that isn’t always the case when you factor in the competition you could face with other buyers at that time of year. If you’re ready to buy a home, here’s why it makes sense to move before the spring market picks up. http://dlvr.it/ShSzrX

Credit, API, Sales, Repurchase Review, Subservicer Oversight Products; TransUnion Credit Study

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There are a lot of topics being covered here at the MBA’s IMB conference. One of them is hedging, and if you want a primer on how lenders are protecting themselves from interest rate risk, here you go. Yesterday the MBA’s Marina Walsh observed what lenders are doing now to survive. In no order: reducing the cost of sales, revisiting existing office leases, taking advantage of predictive analytics, critically examining their business lines, ramping up new products or looking at geographic expansion, retaining servicing, further staffing adjustments, and reducing middle management. Take your pick, or do them all, but every lender is doing something as the days of raising margins to slow volume are long gone. In fact, many lenders who have retained servicing are selling it to maintain their cash flows, despite servicing income being a huge part of whatever profits were to be had in 2022. The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) market has opened 2023 with billions of dollars on the market, and

Mortgage Apps are on the Rise as Rates Drift Lower

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Mortgage loan activity posted a third straight gain during the week ended January 20 . The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and rose 1 percent on an unadjusted basis. The week’s results included an adjustment to account for the observance of Martin Luther King Day. The Refinance Index moved 15 percent higher but was 77 percent below activity during the same week one year ago. That share of the week’s applications increased to 31.9 percent from 31.2 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 3 percent and was 1 percent higher on an unadjusted basis. Activity was 39 percent lower than the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates declined for the third straight week, which is good news for potential homebuyers looking ahead to the spring homebuying season. Mortgage rates

Why You Shouldn’t Fear Today’s Foreclosure Headlines

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If you’ve seen recent headlines about foreclosures surging in the housing market, you’re certainly not alone. There’s no doubt, the stories in the media can be pretty confusing right now. They may even make you think twice about buying a home for fear that prices could crash. The reality is, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed, and understanding what that really means is mission critical if you want to know the truth about what’s happening today. Here’s a deeper look. http://dlvr.it/ShQ5n7

Tax Refund Season is a Great Way to Become a Home Owner

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Tax refund season is an amazing way for renters to fund a small down payment to become home owners! When combined with our available Down Payment Assistance plans, you can become a homeowner for a LOT LESS out- of- pocket than you might think! Let's talk about it? www.DanFreshley.com

Hedging, QC, CRM, Insurance, Pre-Qual, Relationship Management Products; Disaster News; Customer Service

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Conference attendance in 2023 may be down, given layoffs and budget cuts, but here’s a handy dandy list of events this year and state organizations. (Click on “Conferences” on the right; for any additions or corrections, contact Ed.) Here at the MBA’s IMB conference, it’s not much fun talking about revenue and margins. So, let’s talk Vitamin C! San Diego County, and California, ranks first with 59 percent of the U.S. citrus production. And when life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. What about when life gives you plenty of barren areas of snow? Thank you to Len T. for this one, reminding us that some people have inordinate amounts of time on their hands. And thank you to Michael Chan yesterday who sent the real estate version of Wordle if you will, where you guess the price of the house. (Watch for those oceanside house prices!) Yes, there are plenty of people out there looking at housing, and the amount for sale. On Friday NAR reported that total housing inventory levels broke unde

The 3 Factors That Affect Home Affordability

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If you’ve been following the housing market over the last couple of years, you’ve likely heard about growing affordability challenges. But according to experts, the key factors that determine housing affordability are projected to improve this year. Selma Hepp, Executive, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, shares: http://dlvr.it/ShM9zJ

Want To Sell Your House? Price It Right.

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Last year, the housing market slowed down in response to higher mortgage rates, and that had an impact on home prices. If you’re thinking of selling your house soon, that means you’ll want to adjust your expectations accordingly. As realtor.com explains: http://dlvr.it/ShJLgm

Republicans: anxious about the 2024 election? Step 1: make sure the RNC chair is a proven conservative leader who knows what time it is: time for clear & bold messaging 📣, a plan to out-hustle the Dems on early voting 🗳️, & stop wasting donor $$ on grifting consultants 🤑! 🙋🏽‍♀️

Republicans: anxious about the 2024 election? Step 1: make sure the RNC chair is a proven conservative leader who knows what time it is: time for clear & bold messaging 📣, a plan to out-hustle the Dems on early voting 🗳️, & stop wasting donor $$ on grifting consultants 🤑! 🙋🏽‍♀️

You’ll usually see your down payment listed as a percentage of your loan value. For example, if you have a 20% down payment on a $100,000 loan, you’ll bring $20,000 to closing. Most loan types require some kind of down payment. We offer Down Payment Assistance for many different scenarios meaning you MAY be able to buy for little or No Money Down. www.DanFreshley.com #downpayment #mortgageinfo #mortgagelanguage #mortgageterminology #mortgage #lending

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You’ll usually see your down payment listed as a percentage of your loan value. For example, if you have a 20% down payment on a $100,000 loan, you’ll bring $20,000 to closing. Most loan types require some kind of down payment. We offer Down Payment Assistance for many different scenarios meaning you MAY be able to buy for little or No Money Down. www.DanFreshley.com #downpayment #mortgageinfo #mortgagelanguage #mortgageterminology #mortgage #lending http://dlvr.it/ShGty1

Reconsidering a Range Breakout

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Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year.  That resistance coincides with 10yr yields in the 3.40-3.42 neighborhood.  While we did see slightly lower levels earlier this week, it seems we can't yet say that a definitive breakout has taken place.  Part of the hesitation in longer-term bonds could be due to the absence of a clear commitment in expectations for short-term rates.  Specifically, the market increasingly believes that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer even though they don't see the Fed getting "over 5%" as most Fed speakers have suggested.  The following chart of Fed Funds Futures for September shows more of a consolidation of expectations as opposed to an outright shift. There's nothing too meaty on the calendar today, nor at the beginning of next week.  Traders may have to hear from the Fed the week after that before committing to the range breakout.  

Existing Home Sales Shrink for 11th Month

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Existing home sales fell back for the 11th straight month in December according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) The month’s sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units. This is down 1.5 percent from November’s activity and 34.0 percent lower than in December 2022. Single-family home sales declined by 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.60 million from 3.64 million in November and were down 33.5 percent from the previous year. Existing condominium and co-op sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 420,000 units, a decline of 4.5 percent and 38.2 percent from the two earlier periods. [existinghomesdata] The December results were slightly better than expected. Analysts polled by Econoday and Trading Economics each came in with a consensus estimate of 3.97 units. For the entirety of 2022 there were 5.03 million existing homes sold.

Non-QM 2nds, Renovation, Homeowner, Realtor-Facing Products; Reaction to Govt LLPA and Securitization Changes

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What would this opening paragraph be without some fun, non-mortgage stuff? Watch a rare livestream of bald eagles nesting on eggs in California. 32 trillion gallons of water have fallen in California in recent weeks, resulting in a disaster declaration. Speaking of that state, the weather forecast for San Diego is warm and sunny next week as hundreds of mortgage professionals are preparing to go to California for the MBA’s Independent Mortgage Banker’s Conference. (Say “hi” if you see me.) One topic of conversation, of course, will be the bond market and mortgage pricing. Months ago, I’d receive question after question about pricing. “Why is no one paying anything above par (100)? I’d explain that no investor wanted to pay 103 and lose 3 points in a matter of months if rates dropped a little, and that 7 ½ percent 30-year loan refinanced at 100. Well, here we are. Helping lenders was a reduction in securitization costs, but taking away some of the rate environment was yesterday’s conven

What’s Really Happening with Home Prices? [INFOGRAPHIC]

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Some Highlights * If you’re thinking about selling your house, recent headlines about home prices falling month-over-month may have you second guessing your decision—but perspective matters. * While home prices are down slightly month-over-month in some markets, home values are still up almost 10% nationally on a year-over-year basis. A nearly 10% gain is still dramatic compared to the more normal level of appreciation, which is 3-4%. http://dlvr.it/Sh9bYn

Recognizing credit repair scams

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What Are Your Priorities in 2023

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What Past Recessions Tell Us About the Housing Market

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It doesn’t matter if you’re someone who closely follows the economy or not, chances are you’ve heard whispers of an upcoming recession. Economic conditions are determined by a broad range of factors, so rather than explaining them each in depth, let’s lean on the experts and what history tells us to see what could lie ahead. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: http://dlvr.it/Sgxw3T

Key Terms To Know When Buying a Home [INFOGRAPHIC]

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What Experts Are Saying About the 2023 Housing Market

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If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market this year. http://dlvr.it/Sgbbmt

[:en]Your Market Knowledge Will Determine Your Success in 2023 [LIVE WEBINAR][:]

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[:en][:] http://dlvr.it/SgWV5X

Tips To Reach Your Homebuying Goals in 2023 [INFOGRAPHIC]

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http://dlvr.it/SgT1m1

3 Best Practices for Selling Your House This Year

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A new year brings with it the opportunity for new experiences. If that resonates with you because you’re considering making a move, you’re likely juggling a mix of excitement over your next home and a sense of attachment to your current one. A gre... http://dlvr.it/SgPfRz

Avoid the Rental Trap in 2023

If you’re a renter, you likely face an important decision every year: renew your current lease, start a new one, or buy a home. This year is no different. But before you dive too deeply into your options, it helps to understand the true costs of renting moving forward. http://dlvr.it/SgMJyf

What Makes a House a Home?

There’s no denying the long-term financial benefits of owning a home, but today’s housing market may have you wondering if now’s still the time to buy. While the financial aspects of buying a home are important, the non-financial and emotional reasons are too. http://dlvr.it/SgKd0Y

What To Expect From the Housing Market in 2023

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The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it's put the market into a reset position. http://dlvr.it/SgKcgL

Wondering How Much You Need To Save for a Down Payment?

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If you’re getting ready to buy your first home, you’re likely focused on saving up for everything that purchase involves. One cost that’s likely top of mind is your down payment. But don’t let a common misconception about how much you need to save make the process harder than it could be. Understand 20% Isn’t […] http://dlvr.it/SgJPKM

What Are Your Goals in the Housing Market This Year?

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If buying or selling a home is part of your dreams for 2023, it’s essential for you to understand today’s housing market, define your goals, and work with industry experts to bring your homeownership vision for the new year into focus. In the last year, high inflation had a big impact on the economy, the […] http://dlvr.it/SgFv4n